KAJIAN EFEK SPASIAL KASUS DIFTERI DENGAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION (GWNBR)

Abstract

Diphtheria is an infectious disease caused by the Corynebacterium diphtheriae bacteria. Indonesia is the country with the most cases of diphtheria in Southeast Asia and ranks third in the world. In 2016, cases of diphtheria increased by 65 percent and became Extraordinary Events (KLB) in Indonesia, even though during 2013 to 2015 the number of cases of diphtheria has decreased. The province that has the highest number of diphtheria cases in Indonesia in 2016 is East Java. Diphtheria is centered and spread in certain districts / cities in East Java Province so that there are indications of spatial effects in the spread of diphtheria. Because data on the number of diphtheria cases overdispersed and indicated spatial effects in its spread, the main method used in this study was Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR). This method will be compared with other alternative methods namely Poisson regression method and Negative Binomial Regression to get the best modeling. Based on the AIC value of each model it can be concluded that the best method for modeling the number of diphtheria cases is GWNBR. The modeling results with GWNBR show that there is indeed a spatial influence on the number of diphtheria cases and risk factors in East Java Province in 2016. The percentage of DPT-HB3 / DPT-HB-Hib3 immunization coverage is not significant in all observation areas, while the percentage of drug and vaccine availability is significant at entire observation area.